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Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Economic Law vs. Occupy Wall Street

Economic Law vs. Occupy Wall Street

Mises Daily: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 by

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Duh!

In their 1995 book, Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage, David Card and Alan Krueger argued that increases in the minimum wage in Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the early 1990s not only did not lead to unemployment, as classical economic theory would predict, but actually coincided with an increase in employment.

As it turns out, there were many problems with the Card and Krueger study. But even before these problems came to light, economists who understood that the laws of supply and demand are just that — laws — immediately disregarded the study. Nobel Laureate James Buchanan, writing in the Wall Street Journal, argued,

The inverse relationship between quantity demanded and price is the core proposition in economic science, which embodies the presupposition that human choice behavior is sufficiently rational to allow predictions to be made. Just as no physicist would claim that "water runs uphill," no self-respecting economist would claim that increases in the minimum wage increase employment. Such a claim, if seriously advanced, becomes equivalent to a denial that there is even minimal scientific content in economics, and that, in consequence, economists can do nothing but write as advocates for ideological interests. Fortunately, only a handful of economists are willing to throw over the teaching of two centuries; we have not yet become a bevy of camp-following whores.[1]

Buchanan's quote is relevant today because some Harvard students are upset that not all of their economics professors are yet a bevy of Occupy Wall Street–following whores. Citing Professor Greg Mankiw's classical analysis of the minimum wage as one of their grievances, a group of students recently walked out of Mankiw's introductory micro course to join an Occupy protest in Boston. (Apparently spoiled Harvard kids who can't stand even listening to an opposing view are the 99 percent.)

The protestors probably should have stayed in class, though, because their open letter to Mankiw betrays a formidable level of economic ignorance. When they write, for example, "There is no justification for presenting Adam Smith's economic theories as more fundamental or basic than, for example, Keynesian theory," they expose themselves as blissfully unaware that the modern neoclassical economics that Mankiw teaches owes far more to Alfred Marshall than Adam Smith, and that Keynesianism is a school of macroeconomic thought, unlikely to be covered in their microeconomics course.  It's highly doubtful, therefore, that any of these students have actually taken the time to understand the logic behind the laws of supply and demand and how this logic applies to labor markets.

But that doesn't matter to radical leftists. Logic in economics is irrelevant to them. As Mises explained, to defend their irrational theories they "attack logic and reason and substitute mystical intuition for ratiocination."[2] That's why they protest viewpoints they don't like instead of engaging with and critiquing them. And that's why they shout down dissenters in their creepy chanting assemblies. Independent thought is a threat to them.

That this demonstration took place at Harvard, where Democrat professors outnumber Republican ones by 7-1 (and that's not even counting the Marxists who aren't registered as Democrats), is indicative of the leftism that drives the Occupy protests. It's apparently not enough that these students will never encounter a conservative or libertarian viewpoint in any of their other classes. No, they must be shielded from any professor whatsoever who might challenge one of their prejudices against the free market. Even if that professor once wrote, as Mankiw did, "If you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes." If he holds any pro-market views at all, apparently, he must be boycotted.

Mankiw himself lamely addressed the walkout by telling the Harvard Crimson,

While I do not share the specific views of the Occupy Wall Street movement, I am delighted to see students engaged in thinking broadly about social and economic policy. I hope that [Econ 10] can help contribute to [that] ongoing discussion.

But the students who are walking out of his class are not "thinking broadly about social and economic policy." They are thinking narrowly. They are refusing to engage alternative opinions. They are refusing to even try to understand how the economic world works before they go out and tell everyone how to fix it.

Speaking of the anarcho-communist faction of the New Left in the 1970s, Murray Rothbard wrote,

It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a "dismal science." But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance. Yet this sort of aggressive ignorance is inherent in the creed of anarcho-communism.

He could have just as easily said, "This sort of aggressive ignorance is inherent in the creed of the Occupy Wall Street movement." It doesn't matter to them that no serious economist would claim that increases in the minimum wage increase employment, just as no serious physicist would claim that "water runs uphill." All they care about is ideological conformity, even if that means reducing the economics profession to a "bevy of camp-following whores."

Fuente:

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU
Diplomado en Gerencia en Administracion Publica ONU
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Wednesday, November 09, 2011

The Clear Language of the Austrian School

The Clear Language of the Austrian School

Mises Daily: Wednesday, November 09, 2011 by

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Bastiat, Menger, Rothbard

Life's twists and turns will take a person on journeys he would never imagine. A kid from rural Kansas growing up where people simply speak their minds, all the while lacking the fancy elocution offered by supposedly highly educated city folk, couldn't imagine a school of economics offered clearly and simply.

Indeed the Austrian tradition of clear and sound economics is a long one. In the early 19th century, Frenchman Frédéric Bastiat took up where the Spanish Scholastics left off. As the brilliant wordsmith and Wall Street analyst Jim Grant explains,

Because nobody else can understand them, modern economists speak to one another. They gossip in algebra and remonstrate in differential calculus. And when the pungently correct mathematical equation doesn't occur to them, they awkwardly fall back on the English language, like a middle-aged American trying to remember his high-school Spanish. The economist Frédéric Bastiat, who lived in the first half of the 19th century, wrote in French, not symbols. But his words — forceful, clear and witty — live to this day.

The modern dean of the Austrian School, Murray Rothbard himself, wrote,

Bastiat was indeed a lucid and superb writer, whose brilliant and witty essays and fables to this day are remarkable and devastating demolitions of protectionism and of all forms of government subsidy and control. He was a truly scintillating advocate of an untrammeled free market.

Bastiat's wisdom has gone unheeded. The modern world is anything but a free market. It is blanketed with volumes of regulations while forced to operate under the regime of fiat money, central-bank interest-rate setting, and monetary pumping. The economy lurches through a continuous maze of distortions — soaring asset bubbles followed by gut-wrenching crashes — and lingering high unemployment and inflation masked by understated official statistics issued by government agencies.

While most of the public sees and believes what the government wants them to see, Austrians take Bastiat to heart, as Rothbard makes clear:

In this way, the "economist," Bastiat's third-level observer, vindicates common sense and refutes the apologia for destruction of the pseudo-sophisticate. He considers what is not seen as well as what is seen. Bastiat, the economist, is the truly sophisticated analyst.

I was 12 hours into my master's degree in economics from UNLV when Rothbard walked through the door already talking (as if he had started his lecture out in the hallway) about dumb politicians threatening the evil oil companies that were raising gas prices. From that thought, he just continued right into his history-of-economic-thought lecture. He didn't take roll or hand out a syllabus. Murray didn't have time for that; he had centuries of history to cover.

As Murray barreled through his opening lecture for ECO742, I knew that this was economics the way it should be taught. Forget the graphs, equations, and other nonsense I'd merely endured my first two semesters; this was the real stuff: good guys versus bad guys, human action stories told at the pace of a Robin Williams monologue, punctuated with the occasional cackle and a dozen or so reading recommendations per night — book title, author, year published, and usually the publisher name.

Rothbard's history-of-thought lectures in the fall of 1990 provided a financial-history emphasis that piqued my interest in financial bubbles and crashes. This would ultimately be the subject of my master's thesis and give me an understanding of the greatest financial meltdown in modern history — which I would soon live through in my professional life.

Rothbard's mentor, Ludwig von Mises, developed the Austrian business-cycle theory over 100 years ago. Mises had become an economist after reading Carl Menger's Principles of Economics, published in 1871. "Until the end of the Seventies there was no 'Austrian School.' There was only Carl Menger," Mises explains. It's no surprise that the Austrian School's founder started as a journalist and wrote a number of comedies and novels.

It was through the Austrian lens that I explored Tulipmania and the Mississippi and South Sea bubbles in writing a thesis under Rothbard's and Hans-Hermann Hoppe's direction. But at my day job, Mises's lesson was lost while I was busy lending in the heat of the real-estate bubble of the early 2000s. Financial bubbles are much easier to see from the outside looking in than the inside looking out, with the timing impossible to calculate.

In the wake of the 9/11 attacks the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates, with the federal-funds rate pushed down to 1 percent by 2003 from 6.5 percent in 2000. Keeping rates at rock bottom for a year would generate a speculative boom in real estate the likes of which America had never seen. And the city where Rothbard had taught until his death in 1995 — and Hoppe until his retirement in 2006 — was a steaming cauldron of real-estate speculation.

Just as Mises had predicted a coming depression during the heyday of the roaring '20s, Austrians like Mark Thornton saw danger lurking behind the boom, writing "Housing: Too Good to Be True" in June 2004.

In Las Vegas, land prices rose eightfold and housing prices tripled. More than 200 people a day moved to the new boom town, and $40 billion in new casino-resort development was started as the real-estate and stock-market booms spread throughout the country.

The city that was half a million people when Rothbard, Hoppe, and I arrived in 1986 had grown to 2 million a couple decades later, with the experts claiming Las Vegas would grow to 4 million in another 20 years.

Austrians knew the Federal Reserve's interest-rate manipulation had engendered the boom, but Fed chair Alan Greenspan pooh-poohed the notion of a nationwide bubble in 2002:

The ongoing strength in the housing market has raised concerns about the possible emergence of a bubble in home prices. However, the analogy often made to the building and bursting of a stock price bubble is imperfect.

Three years later, it was Ben Bernanke's turn to deny there was a housing bubble when questioned:

Well, I guess I don't buy your premise. It's a pretty unlikely possibility. We've never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize: might slow consumption spending a bit. I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

However, the Fed chair had already begun raising rates to cool the hot market. And as Austrian business-cycle theory would predict, home prices peaked in 2006, with the stock market, commercial property, and land prices following suit a year later. Despite a furious reversal on the part of the central bank to inject liquidity into the system, the cleansing of the malinvestments produced by excessive central-bank credit continues grudgingly as I write. The Fed, along with other federal-government interventions, impedes the recovery's process with ground-hugging interest rates along with programs intending to prop up the price of assets that in actuality require further price correction.

Austrians have explained the crash and the lack of recovery in plain and simple language. Rothbard makes clear that the government must retreat, allowing consumer preferences to dictate what is to be produced, not government policy. The collective time preference must dictate interest rates, not government central banks. But alas, we remain in the morass. Government will not take its hand from the tiller.

A new generation of students seeks the truth delivered plainly, using clear words and logic, rather than muddled graphs, impenetrable equations, and double-talk. Students are ready to be amazed as I was 20 years ago by Rothbard's wisdom and wit, amplified with Hoppe's laser-like logic.

While Keynesians, monetarists, and the like communicate with each other via indecipherable code printed in academic journals that exist to gather dust in vacant college libraries, Austrians continue to explain what's happening in the real world. The world that matters. Where individuals seek better lives through purposeful action. Where mutual exchange benefits both parties. Where government distorts and destroys while, at the same time, private firms and entrepreneurs work tirelessly to make our lives richer and fuller.

The great tradition and thinking that began in Vienna so many years ago is now a worldwide movement that not only educates millions of students of all ages but also provides hope of a better life for millions of people around the world. The Austrian framework provides a roadmap for a prosperous world: a free, peaceful, and productive world — creating a bountiful existence that is impossible to imagine. Not through applying just the right amount of government force here or there, or the right amount of regulation, or setting the proper interest rate, but by letting markets work.

 

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU
Diplomado en Gerencia en Administracion Publica ONU
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Tuesday, November 08, 2011

LAWYERSCHILE: Limiting Eminent Domain Abuse

November 8, 2011

Limiting Eminent Domain Abuse

Mississippi voters on Tuesday will vote on a ballot initiative that would restrict the state's ability to expropriate land under eminent domain laws. Since the landmark Kelo v. New London case in 2005, 43 states have revised their laws regarding private property and eminent domain. At the Cato Institute, our scholars have long understood that private property is the foundation not only of prosperity but of freedom itself.


 

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU
Diplomado en Gerencia en Administracion Publica ONU
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Soliciten nuestros cursos de capacitación  y consultoría en GERENCIA ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA -LIDERAZGO -  GESTION DEL CONOCIMIENTO - RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL – LOBBY – COACHING EMPRESARIAL-ENERGIAS RENOVABLES   ,  asesorías a nivel nacional e  internacional y están disponibles  para OTEC Y OTIC en Chile

Three Viennas: Old, New, and Virtual

Three Viennas: Old, New, and Virtual

Mises Daily: Tuesday, November 08, 2011 by

The original Mises Kreis, made up of members of Mises's private seminar, met regularly in Vienna from 1919 to 1934. Today the Mises Institute unites Austrian scholars in this same city, allowing it to once again act as the heartbeat of the Austrian School — for a few days.

As almost a century ago, perhaps the most important reason for adhering to the Austrian School is this: monetary theory. Mises's seminal work on monetary theory, Die Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufsmittel (1912), established Mises as the leading monetary economist of his time and a man around whom his circle was eager to gather.

Austrian scholars have predicted and continue to explain financial crises with the help of the very business-cycle theory developed by Mises in 1912. With the recent collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, new interest in the Austrian monetary and business-cycle theory has been stimulated. Only minor adaptations and additions to this theory have been necessary, including the shadow banking system, and securitization and maturity mismatching.[1] Indeed, even maturity mismatching was already identified by Mises in his 1912 opus as a violation of the golden rule of banking.

In the early days of the Mises Kreis, the gold standard in Austria had been suspended in order to finance government expenditures for war, a welfare state, and a vast government bureaucracy. Today we suffer again under monetary experiments.

In the Unites States, for example, we can observe "quantitative easing" (QE), which amounts to money production in order to finance government expenditures at zero-interest rates. As in 1919, the proponents of money production claim that this policy is necessary to maintain the financial system and reduce unemployment.[2] Indeed, there is truth to this claim. Past credit expansion has distorted the structure of production enormously. Industries depend on continuing inflation. If inflation were to be slowed down and QE ended, a readjustment would be triggered, leading to temporary unemployment and problems for financial institutions. This explains why monetary authorities, shortly after the "infamous" QE1, which reinflated bubble activities, proceeded with QE2, which would presumably be followed by QE3, and so on.

In Europe we are currently living out another experiment. There has been one central-banking system in the Eurozone since 1999; it is used by several independent governments to finance their expenditures. I have called the setup a tragedy of the commons.[3] The consequences of the debt-and-deficit orgy have created a situation beyond control for the elites. The sovereign-debt problems are answered only with more debts financed by the European Central Bank. Wealth is transferred from the taxpayers of the more-solvent countries to the governments of the insolvent countries and their creditors, the banking system.

Today, as in 1919, one result of these experiments is a tremendous redistribution of wealth and income. Bankers and speculators buying leveraged companies and financial assets are benefiting from the money production that causes new highs for commodities and financial assets. The majority of the population is on the losing end. They have seen food, transportation, and energy costs rising faster than their incomes. Inflation erodes their standard of living while government price statistics conceal the problem. It is only the incorporation of large parts of Asia into the international division of labor and important technologically driven productivity gains that have prevented an absolute decline of living standards over the last decade.

It is of great symbolic value that Misesian scholars unite today in Vienna, where Mises's anti-inflation campaign coincided, timewise, with the launch of his private seminar,[4] and the 1922 stabilization of the Austrian krone. Similarly, the most important goal for Austrian scholars today is to prevent hyperinflation by explaining the consequences of our present monetary system's setup and "innovative" monetary policies, and by pointing to possible reforms — the best way to achieve 100 percent free banking, for instance.

Austrians today remain connected to a modern-day Mises circle, thanks to the efforts of the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, with its publications and conferences, and most importantly its cutting-edge and effective use of the tools of the Internet. It unites scholars with the public all year round through technology; it succeeds in providing the world with a "virtual" Vienna. But a physical "new Vienna" for Austrian scholars, one where they are united continuously and in person to engage in fruitful and stimulating debates, has yet to be found.

In the United States, another venue for Austrian scholars and students to gather and engage in applied and empirical studies in the Austro-libertarian tradition is George Mason University in Washington, DC. The theoretical center of Austrian economics and the Vienna of the 21st century, however, may well be Madrid.

Cultural, political, and intellectual ties have connected Madrid and Vienna for a long time. Habsburg's Charles V reigned in Spain. His brother, Ferdinand I, born in Alcalá de Henares, Spain, ruled the Austrian hereditary lands. The Habsburgs reigned over the Holy Roman Empire, Austria, and Spain, until the War of Succession (1701–1714) when the Spanish throne was lost to the Bourbons. Symbols of the long connections can still be found today by tourists: the old center of Madrid is called "El Madrid de los Austrias." Vienna reciprocates with its famous Spanische Hofreitschule or Spanish Riding School, founded by Ferdinand I.

And still another connection has emerged. A new center of Austrian economics in Madrid is largely the result of the efforts of Jesús Huerta de Soto who fittingly is most well-known for his influential work on monetary economics.[5] The first master's of Austrian economics ("Master in Economics of the Austrian School" at University Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid) worldwide has attracted students from all over the world much in the way the original Mises circle attracted Lionel Robbins and others. The number of master's students who write a PhD thesis in Austrian economics is rising every year, with half of them coming from foreign countries. Formal and informal seminars complement the theoretical education in the Austrian tradition. Numerous professors at different universities, an academic journal, the influential think tank Instituto Juan de Mariana, prominent Austrian contributors in the media, and a thriving community of Austrians complete a unique environment that might be called a new Vienna.

Year-round interaction in this fruitful atmosphere has already resulted in numerous scholarly and popular contributions. Hopefully, this conference in the "old" Vienna can lend impetus to the revival of the Austrian School in general, as well as strengthen the connection of the new, virtual, and physical Viennas as they pave the way to sound money.


 

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU
Diplomado en Gerencia en Administracion Publica ONU
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Monday, November 07, 2011

How I Learned to Love the State by Mises org

How I Learned to Love the State

Mises Daily: Monday, November 07, 2011 by

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While we were students of the state education apparatus, how many of us had to write research papers where we were asked to "change the world"?

I'm sure we can all remember a writing prompt similar to this: "If I could change one thing about the world, it would be …" or "How I can make the world a better place."

Often, these writing prompts were given to us when we were not even old enough to think about abstract concepts like war and politics.

Were these assignments teaching us to think critically? In some cases, this is possible. For the most part, however, these paper topics taught us to do one thing: become central planners. It taught us that complex social problems could conceivably be solved by one person (or a few bureaucrats) in a room developing public policy for the entire nation.

If we just give $1,000 to every poor person, we won't have any more poverty, we thought. The teacher never asked, "From where would this money come?" It did not matter because at least we were thinking about other people. We were thinking about the needy. We were thinking about "solutions" and being "proactive."

I think we could save the environment if we could get everyone to plant one tree, we concluded. The teacher never asked, "How would you get everyone to do this? Would it be through force or persuasion?" It did not matter. We were beginning to realize the importance that policy makers play in shaping our world.

We were not asked to look at the many unintended consequences that would arise from these novel ideas. Where would we get $1,000 for every poor person? By what standard do we judge poor? How do we ensure that $1,000 would be spent to bring the person out of poverty?

Of course, it was never asked whether it was moral to steal money from some to give to others. It did not matter. We were just pretending to be the state; there's no harm in that.

No idea was a bad idea. These teachers were taught to respect the diversity of ideas. Their creed dictates that all ideas have different values and none are necessarily better than the others.

But how can we expect children to experience proper cognitive development when we cannot tell them the difference between right and wrong for fear of offending their sensibilities?

What if a child were to propose a society (loosely) based on the principle of nonaggression. What if a child were to ask the teacher, "Why do we have a government in the first place?"

This would certainly go against the teacher's love of central planning. The answer to this child's question would be simplified into one word: chaos. For most teachers, an anarchic society is and can be nothing but chaos and destruction. After this, the child would not think about it again for years, if ever.

Why would the teacher not be open to this idea? Why would the teacher argue against this child's proposal? The idea would be rejected for the same reason that a news channel owned by a light bulb company would likely never have a special report about its defective light bulbs. Most government school teachers will certainly not entertain the idea that the government is immoral.

Government schools are essentially propaganda machines for the government, but there is no propaganda minister or a top-down curriculum from the Department of Education that promotes this propaganda.

Public schools, by their very nature, are designed to promote government. They teach children to accept that government is exempt from the ethical code that prevents someone from stealing their neighbor's belongings; without government theft, the schools would not exist.

They teach children that the biggest problems of the day can only be solved by central planners. Through these exercises, children learn that humans are so simplistic that one policy can solve a major problem with thousands of variables.

It teaches kids that everything happens in a vacuum. The idea that every man is a unique, free-thinking individual who faces unique choices is replaced with the view that all men are part of a herd, which can be easily manipulated and coerced.

When they ask children to think about what they would change in the world, they are really asking, What would you coerce others to do?

 

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU
Diplomado en Gerencia en Administracion Publica ONU
Diplomado en Coaching Ejecutivo ONU( 
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 CEL: 93934521
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Soliciten nuestros cursos de capacitación  y consultoría en GERENCIA ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA -LIDERAZGO -  GESTION DEL CONOCIMIENTO - RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL – LOBBY – COACHING EMPRESARIAL-ENERGIAS RENOVABLES   ,  asesorías a nivel nacional e  internacional y están disponibles  para OTEC Y OTIC en Chile

Sunday, November 06, 2011

"Tenemos un buen gobierno, un gran Presidente con ganas de hacer muchas cosas. Quizá ese es el problema"

ANDRÓNICO LUKSIC
"Tenemos un buen gobierno, un gran Presidente con ganas de hacer muchas cosas. Quizá ese es el problema"

fotogrande06112011.jpg
En medio de una apretada agenda, que incluyó reuniones en las ciudades de Beijing y Shanghai, el empresario Andrónico Luksic entra de lleno en el debate nacional: el desempeño del Gobierno, una posible reforma tributaria, el rumbo que han tomado las protestas estudiantiles y la violencia en las calles. También relata algunos aspectos de su vida personal. "El Elqui comienza a llamarme", dice, aunque también señala que le gusta lo que hace y que aún no considera renunciar.

-¿Cómo ve a Chile en este momento?

-Lo veo bien desunido, con una gran cantidad de intereses diversos, no veo que haya un trabajo de unidad. También creo que seguimos teniendo un tremendo país. Hay que cuidarlo.

-Esa desunión, ¿por qué cree que se genera?

-Creo que tiene que ver con una cantidad de demandas nuevas. La gente hoy día tiene una menor paciencia, está dispuesta a esperar menos tiempo, la gente quiere las cosas para hoy, no quiere las cosas para sus hijos, sino para ellos y también para sus hijos. Y eso obviamente genera una tensión importante en el país. Es algo nuevo, no lo habíamos vivido nunca. Pero esto no se arregla con una vara mágica, es parte por un proceso de crecimiento y ese crecimiento deriva en bienestar.

-¿Hay falta de representatividad política?

-Si creemos que falta representatividad, tendremos que mejorar el sistema político. Yo no creo que sea el caso en Chile, pero yo soy un voto.

-Dado el contexto actual, ¿cree que Chile tiene asegurado el camino al desarrollo o está en cuestión?

-Chile tiene los elementos necesarios para transitar hacia un desarrollo pleno. Creo que hoy estamos viviendo una situación puntual relacionada con demandas muy justificadas de un grupo importante de gente joven, pero no creo que esto pueda complicar o dañar la ruta al desarrollo, y si eso pasa estaríamos siendo tremendamente irresponsables por todo lo que hemos vivido para llegar hasta donde estamos hoy. Entiendo la inquietud de la juventud que dice "nos arman mesas de trabajo, pero finalmente quedan en puras conversaciones". Efectivamente, tienen un punto, pero no hay otra manera de avanzar en reformas tan importantes como esta, sino es a través del diálogo.

-¿Cuáles son los desafíos que tiene Chile hacia adelante. ¿Es sólo crecimiento?

-El desafío para adelante es tener una agenda común. Estamos claros de cuáles son las prioridades que el país necesita: educación y salud. Pero necesitamos tener una agenda común, transversal, que todos empujemos el carro para el mismo lado. Eso no existe. Falta consensuar una manera de hacer las cosas.

-¿Cómo pueden los empresarios empujar su agenda? ¿Cuál es el rol que les corresponde?

-Los empresarios no podemos tener una agenda distinta a la que tiene el país. Si empezamos con una agenda propia, no vamos a sumar. Y si hay que empujarla, debemos hacerlo desde los organismos gremiales. El rol que nos corresponde es continuar desarrollando empresas, seguir ayudando a generar crecimiento en Chile, con una visión de responsabilidad social más amplia, tomando un mayor compromiso en esta área.

-¿Tiene alguna diferencia para usted el hecho de que el gobierno sea de derecha, más cercano al mundo empresarial?

-Mi padre tenía un dicho: que los empresarios no tenemos partido político, siempre somos de gobierno. Eso es lo que nos decía. Esto significa que estamos para colaborar, para servir a Chile, independientemente de quién esté gobernando.

-¿Está de acuerdo con la gratuidad en la educación? ¿Cómo, a su juicio, se soluciona este problema?

-No hay nadie en Chile que no esté de acuerdo con que la educación debe ser gratis para aquellos que no pueden o les es difícil pagarla. Pero no me parece que sea razonable que mis hijos estudien gratis en Chile. Si puedo pagar la educación, tengo que pagarla. Es un poco idealista decir "educación gratis para todos".

-El gobierno del Presidente Piñera lleva ya 1 año 8 meses. ¿Cuál es su balance?

-El país ha seguido avanzando por la senda del crecimiento. Seguimos siendo un país ordenado, todavía muy ejemplar en términos de nuestras finanzas públicas. Creo que el Presidente Piñera partió con un terremoto tremendo que le produjo un desbarajuste importante respecto de lo que tenían planeado. Tenemos un buen gobierno, un gran Presidente con ganas de hacer muchas cosas y a lo mejor ese puede ser el problema. No se pueden hacer tantas cosas en cuatro años.

(Entrevista completa en versión impresa)

Texto: Alfonso Peró V. / Foto: Héctor Aravena


Fuente:

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
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Saturday, November 05, 2011

Ganó "Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty"1 comentario

Ganó "Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty"

1 comentario

ft-gs-business-book-2011-winner.jpg

Anoche se anunció en Londres el ganador del último concurso organizado por el periódico económico financiero internacional, el Financial Times, y el banco de inversión estadounidense, Goldman Sachs, para encontrar el mejor libro de economía o finanzas de 2011.

Este año ganó "Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty", de los profesores de Economía de la Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Abhijit V. Banerjee y Esther Duflo, y, como dije en mi anterior artículo comentando los seis candidatos "Hablando del desarrollo de países más pobres."

Después de miles de millones gastado durante décadas por gobiernos, organizaciones multilaterales y organizaciones no gubernamentales (ONGs) para intentar ayudar a los más pobres, todavía se encuentran en situación de pobreza y nosotros nos encontramos en necesidad de tener que continuar ayudando. Muchos critican al sistema capitalista por la pobreza del mundo y, ahora que estamos en crisis financiera, se ven más legitimados y algunos utilizan esta crisis como excusa para reducir nuestros compromisos hacia los pobres.

Utilizando los más de 15 años de experiencia de los autores, estudiando las causas y las condiciones de la pobreza en distintos países, Poor Economics nos da ideas nuevas sobre cómo viven los pobres, en qué condiciones y qué se puede hacer para impactar positivamente y de forma material estas condiciones. Sería innovador ver ayudas que funcionen de verdad. El video nos da las ideas de los autores de ellos mismos.

Además, puede que estas nuevas formas de resolver situaciones económicas complicadas ayuden en países más desarrollados que están sufriendo de la crisis económica, como dije en mi anterior artículo:

aprenderíamos más de cómo ayudar nuestro desarrollo si ganara Poor Economics, ya que las bases del desarrollo de muchos países europeos no se puede decir que están a nivel del primer mundo.

¡Enhorabuena profesores Abhijit V. Banerjee y Esther Duflo por vuestro premio!

Vía | Financial Times (en inglés y €)
En El Blog Salmón | Los mejores libros de negocios del 2011

Fuente:ELBLOGSALMON

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU
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Friday, November 04, 2011

How to Fix the Housing Crisis

How to Fix the Housing Crisis
by Doug French on November 4, 2011

The foreclosure crisis has crawled on for going on four years now with no end in sight. The S&P/Case-Shiller index for August fell 3.8 percent from a year ago. The index includes home prices for 20 US cities.

"Continued house price declines could lead to even more defaults, foreclosures and distress sales, undermining wealth, confidence and spending," William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. "Breaking this vicious cycle is one of the most pressing issues facing policy makers."

Every one of the Republican presidential candidates is being asked how they would handle the slow-motion housing wreck. Long shot Newt Gingrich says he would rewrite the rules to make it profitable for banks to renegotiate loan principal amounts.

"He disagrees with his Republican colleagues that the free market will find a fair way to let the banks and homeowners work things out," writes Karoun Demirjian for the Las Vegas Sun.

President Obama has jumped in to adjust Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rules to allow refinances for loans exceeding 125 percent loan to value.

The president says this will save underwater homeowners thousands of dollars a year.

Princeton professor Alan Blinder penned an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal proposing forced principal reductions with the cost to be shared by banks and taxpayers — with the proviso that government be given an equity kicker when housing prices go back up.

Blinder also thinks the Federal Reserve and Treasury should provide cheap financing to developers who will use the money to buy up properties with the intention of renting the properties out.

Harvard's Martin Feldstein put in his two cents' worth on the issue for the New York Times. Feldstein points out that home values have dropped 40 percent. The result, he writes, is "less consumer spending, leading to less business production and fewer jobs."

Feldstein claims the government can stop the fall in house prices by slicing off any mortgage principal amount owed exceeding 110 percent loan to value. He says this policy would cost $350 billion or less and would modify 11 million of the 15 million "underwater" homes in America. The banks and the government would split the cost, and in the case of mortgages held by Fannie and Freddie, "the government would just be paying itself," he writes, presumably with a straight face.

In exchange for having their lender take a haircut over 110 percent, borrowers would accept full recourse on the modified loan.

"I cannot agree with those who say we should just let house prices continue to fall until they stop by themselves," writes Feldstein. "Although some forest fires are allowed to burn out naturally, no one lets those fires continue to burn when they threaten residential neighborhoods."

"Recovering the 31 percent plunge in home prices from their 2006 peak will probably be years in the making as foreclosures throw more properties on the market and sales flag," writes Shobhana Chandra for Bloomberg.

Despite the obvious, policymakers and wonks think trimming mortgage principal down to just 10 percent underwater or that lowering borrowers' financing costs for those 25 percent (or more) underwater will somehow halt the slide in home values and spur consumer spending.

The belief is that if homeowners are just kinda, sorta underwater then they will keep on faithfully paying Fannie, Freddie, BoA, Wells, Morgan, and the rest. Never mind that it will still take years of steady payments to ever see the faintest ray of equity light shine through the crack between what's owed and the home's value.

We can see how this works out for a hypothetical couple created by Brent T. White in his Arizona Legal Studies discussion paper.[1] The young couple buys a 1,380-square-foot home in Salinas, California, for $585,000 in January 2006. The couple purchased the home with no money down with a 30-year, fully amortizing loan at 6.5 percent interest. The payment including insurance and taxes is $4,300 a month.

Now the home is only worth $187,000. An Obama refinance of the $560,000 that they still owe on the note will lower their payment by $900. But the couple will never really own any of the home.

Under the Martin Feldstein plan, the note holder and taxpayers would eat $354,300, leaving the young couple with a mortgage of $205,700. Given the ultralow current mortgage rates of 4.5 percent, a 30-year fully amortizing deal including taxes and insurance would be a payment in the neighborhood of $1,250.

If we closed the deal this month, assuming home prices don't fall any further in Salinas, our young couple will see some equity in December 2016.

Meanwhile the same home can be rented for $1,000 a month. Instead of paying $1,250 a month to have equity of $168 in 61 months, saving the extra $250 a month and earning no interest on it equals $15,250 in the same amount of time.

Of course home prices in central California might rise 2 percent a year, so after five years the home would be worth $206,500, but then half of any equity belongs to Uncle Sam under the Blinder plan.

All of these ideas to save the housing market and supposedly to increase consumer spending do exactly the opposite. These plans keep people chained to underwater mortgages, keeping them from moving to where there are more and better job opportunities.

Unemployed heavy-equipment operator Charles Mills wanted to leave North Las Vegas for Oklahoma and a job, but he is $200,000 underwater on a home he bought at the peak of the housing market in 2006. The plans mentioned by Blinder and Feldstein would relieve Mills of roughly $190,000 of the debt, but the principal reduction won't put him back to work. Plus, the odds of a quick turnaround in North Las Vegas home values are about the same as for the Kansas City Royals to win the 2012 World Series.

The idea that the too-big-to-fail banks will cover half the cost of these plans is laughable. The hit to their capital would be considerable, sending the banks right back to Washington's door with a tin cup.

And how much bureaucracy would be required to manage the implementation of these plans and determination of equity splits when homes are sold?

All of these plans are not really aid to underwater homeowners as much as another bailout for the banks — not to mention Fannie and Freddie.

Any business dominated by entities only in business because of the good graces of the government cannot be considered part of the free market. The reason the housing market is not clearing is that the government stands in the way by propping up the large mortgage holders.

No reasonable person sees Fannie Mae and sister entity Freddie Mac, which were seized by the government in September 2008, as the product of spontaneous order. To stay in business, the two firms together have needed about $169 billion in taxpayer bailout funds, with no end in sight.

Changes to FASB rules 157, 115, and 124, which allowed banks greater discretion in determining at what price to carry certain types of securities on their balance sheets and recognition of other-than-temporary impairments have made the big banks wards of the state as well.

The real help for underwater homeowners will only arrive when Fannie, Freddie, and the rest are allowed to fail. The equivalent of a chapter 7 bankruptcy filing (liquidation) would put these underwater loans out for bid in the market place. Would our mythical mortgage in Salinas, secured by a house worth $187,000, trade for $205,700? Not hardly.

No one can get a loan for a 110 percent of value in this market, let alone 125 percent, or 100 percent for that matter. Those looking for mortgages should expect to put 20 percent down. Values in a bankruptcy sale would reflect this reality and then some. Based on the liquidation prices received by the FDIC and other distressed debt sellers, this mortgage paper would likely be scooped up for half or a third of the home's value.

Buyers of the paper would immediately negotiate with borrowers to create loans that are conforming (80 percent LTV) and performing.

For instance, Selene Residential Mortgage Opportunity Fund purchased the mortgage secured by the home of Anna and Charlie Reynolds in St. George, Utah, for a deep discount, the Wall Street Journal reported in a front-page story. The Reynolds were struggling with a $3,464 monthly payment and the value of their home had plummeted.

Selene, run by Wall Street legend Lewis Ranieri,


buys loans to make a profit on them, not as a public service, but company officials say it is often more profitable to keep the borrower in the home than to foreclose. If a delinquent loan can be turned into a "performing" loan, with the borrower making regular payments, the value of that loan rises, and Selene can turn around and either refinance it or sell it at a profit.

Home values in St. George had plummeted in similar fashion to that of Las Vegas, only a two-hour drive away. Selene slashed the principle balance of the loan due from $421,731 to $243,182 and lowered the interest rate, reducing the Reynolds' monthly payment to $1,573.

"Around 90% of Selene's loan modifications involve reducing the principal," James R. Hagerty wrote in the WSJ, "compared to less than 2% of the modifications done by federally regulated banks in the first quarter."

And while many upside-down borrowers can't even find a human to talk to about their loan, let alone sit down and renegotiate terms that will benefit both parties, Selene immediately tries to contact the borrowers on the notes they have purchased, "sometimes sending a FedEx package with a gift card that can be activated only if the borrower calls a Selene debt-workout specialist."

 

 

$3.75 $3.00

It's hard to imagine Fannie and Freddie being so proactive.

Ludwig von Mises explained that one government intervention leads to an endless succession of interventions to deal with the effects of the first and subsequent interventions. Ultimately, it comes down to two choices. "Either capitalism or socialism: there exists no middle way," Mises wrote.

Likewise, there is no middle way to solve the housing crisis. For capitalism to work its magic and set underwater homeowners free, mortgage holders must be allowed to fail.


Douglas French is president of the Mises Institute and author of Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases in the Money SupplyandWalk Away: The Rise and Fall of the Home-Ownership Myth.He received his master's degree in economics from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, under Murray Rothbard with Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe serving on his thesis committee.French teaches in the Mises Academy.See his tribute to Murray Rothbard.Send him mail. See Doug French's article archives.

 

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Are Government Jobs Productive?

Are Government Jobs Productive?

Mises Daily: Tuesday, November 01, 2011 by

A
A
Duck Soup

Ron Paul's recent reply to a question posed to him by Wolf Blitzer reveals an interesting litmus test for whether or not a person accepts the fundamental premise of modern (Keynesian) macroeconomics.

As Politico reports,

Appearing on CNN ahead of the speech, Paul was pressed by Wolf Blitzer on how eliminating about 221,000 government jobs across five cabinet departments would boost the economy. He responded: "They're not productive jobs," he said.

Are they, or are they not "productive jobs?"

Productivity

It must first be noted that Dr. Paul does not mean to suggest that these jobs involve low productivity in the economic sense of the term, i.e., output per hour. Dr. Paul was not simply suggesting that government employees are lazy. What Paul meant was that government jobs do not provide society with a consumer good or service.

Think of the US ambassador to Ruritania. If we were to measure the ambassador's productivity in terms of output per hour, the denominator of that equation would simply consist of all the hours he or she worked.

But think about the ambassador's output. An ambassador's daily work consists largely of meeting with foreign diplomats, negotiating, writing reports and memos, and engaging in some management of diplomatic projects. Adding up all of these meetings, reports, and project-management tasks would give us some measure of ambassadorial "output." An ambassador who completes a greater number of such tasks would be more productive than another.

This gives us some measure of the ambassador's "productivity" in the economic-jargon sense of the word.

Productive Jobs

By now it should be obvious that Dr. Paul does not exactly have economic productivity in mind when he suggests that government jobs are not productive. In a technical sense, they are equally as "productive" as every other job.

Instead, Dr. Paul — along with most Austrian School economists — suggests that the tasks performed by an ambassador (or any other government employee) do not provide a market function. These services would not be demanded by anyone in a market economy.

In essence, the government creates a demand for these services out of thin air: the existence of ambassadors is what leads to the work done by ambassadors. They do not take their services to market to sell them to anyone who happens to be a willing buyer. Governments appoint ambassadors to perform services that no consumer wishes to buy.

Compare those services to the services performed by an individual for whom there is a very real demand — say, a mechanical engineer. Mechanical engineers are hired by clients who cannot efficiently meet the needs of their existing customers until they have a solution to a mechanical problem, such as moving large objects from point A to point B, increasing the speed at which widget X is produced, etc. The mechanical engineer designs a solution to these problems for a fee corresponding to the amount of money the client expects to save by having a new, more efficient solution.

The Crux of the Issue

Considering that ambassadors are paid out of money collected from public revenues, whereas mechanical engineers are paid out of the accumulated capital of individuals and firms, government jobs create the following situation:

  1. Governments hire and begin paying ambassadors.
  2. Governments tax the public to pay ambassadors.
  3. The public has less total savings, because they have paid more in taxes.
  4. With reduced savings, the public has less capital to invest in engineering projects.

Thus, the impact of paying government employees is to transfer economic resources from the production of economic goods and services to the performing of services for which there is no market demand.

This is what Dr. Paul means when he says that government jobs are "not productive."

The Keynesian Claim and the Litmus Test

Keynesian economists argue that the salaries given to ambassadors eventually end up in the hands of the public when the ambassadors take their salaries to market to purchase their own consumption goods and services. While an initial cost is incurred when taxes are levied, the economy as a whole should not suffer, since that money returns to the economy in the form of consumption on the part of government employees.

If we take the example no further than this, we cannot say that the Keynesian claim is wrong. The issue involved is not simply a question of whether government employees eventually spend their money on consumer goods. They do.

The litmus test is the extent to which a person believes that the government employees' consumption returns to the economy as evenly and efficiently distributed as it was before the taxes were levied. Does the money paid to government employees simply pass through the government and return to individuals within an economy exactly as it was before? Or, does the total distribution of money change when money is taxed away from producers who would use it as investment capital and given to ambassadors who use it for consumption?

Government Expenses from the Austrian Perspective

In the above example, Austrian School adherents would point out the following:

  • Because the government hired an ambassador, someone who would otherwise be engaged in another activity now performs a nonmarket function for which there is no demand.

  • Because the government pays the ambassador with money taxed from private-sector market agents, resources that were once utilized in the production of one set of goods are now diverted to the production of nonmarket goods for which there is no demand.

Therefore, there is a change in the distribution of resources.

What about when the ambassadors spend their money on consumption? Again, returning to the above example, Austrian School adherents would point out the following:

  • The money that some individuals had intended to spend on mechanical engineering has been transferred to ambassadors.

  • Those ambassadors must, prior to any other form of consumption, purchase food, clothing, shelter, healthcare, and other such necessities.

Ambassadors' consumption does not return to the mechanical engineers who would have been the original recipients of that money. Instead, it is diverted to producers of food, clothing, shelter, healthcare, etc. If money eventually makes its way back to the mechanical engineers, it is a much smaller share of the ambassadors' consumption expenditure.

Austrian School economists refer to this phenomenon as the non-neutrality of money.

Conclusion

Whether you agree or disagree with Dr. Paul's claim that government jobs are "not productive," the extent to which you agree provides valuable insight into the extent to which you buy into the mainstream, Keynesian view of money in the macroeconomy.

The Austrian perspective argues that all government jobs divert resources into the production of goods and services that would either never exist in free-market conditions or would exist to a much lesser extent.

In that sense, government jobs are not productive.

 

Saludos
Rodrigo González Fernández
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