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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Presidente Piñera: “It is up to us to be prepared to give the Chilean people the guidance, early warning, assistance and protection they need”22 de febrero de 2011

Presidente Piñera: "It is up to us to be prepared to give the Chilean people the guidance, early warning, assistance and protection they need"

22 de febrero de 2011

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This morning, President Piñera signed legislation to create the National Civil Protection Agency, which will transform the current ONEMI into a new institution which is "modern, quick, vigilant, flexible and effective and which fulfills its task of anticipating, preventing, alerting, guiding, protecting and helping the Chilean people to deal with natural catastrophes," he said. He also officially inaugurated the new National Early Warning Center.

With regard to the reconstruction process in Chile, he said, "While some people insist on denying the facts and it annoys them to see a country getting back on its feet, I want to state in all seriousness that over 50% of what the earthquake and tsunami destroyed has now been rebuilt."

In fulfillment of a pledge made on the very morning of February 27, 2010, Sebastián Piñera, the President of Chile, accompanied by the Minister of the Interior and Public Safety, Rodrigo Hinzpeter, this morning signed legislation creating the National Civil Protection Agency.

Just a few days before the commemoration marking one year since the tragedy, the President said that on the day of the earthquake, "the National Emergency Office was not prepared and it only took a few seconds for the whole country to realize the extent of improvisation and confusion which reigned."

He emphasized that these changes are needed because "while we are not able to anticipate or avoid natural catastrophes, we can be prepared and have modern, quick, flexible and effective institutions which provide the Chilean people with the guidance, early warning, assistance and protection they need."

The key objective of the legislation is to give the National Emergency Office a new institutional structure with greater powers and resources. It is "a modern institution which draws from the best examples and practices from around the world; which is quick and flexible, able to react in time instead of when it is too late; which is vigilant and will always be prepared and effective, so it can fulfill its job of anticipating, preventing, alerting, guiding, protecting and helping the Chilean people to deal with natural catastrophes," he said.

With regard to the reconstruction process in Chile, President Piñera emphasized that "while some people insist on denying facts and it annoys them to see a country getting back on its feet, I want to state in all seriousness that over 50% of what the earthquake and tsunami destroyed has now been rebuilt. I'm talking about homes, schools, hospitals, bridges, ports, airports, canals, reservoirs, civil works, heritage works and also the heritage and infrastructure of our Armed Forces."

"However, rather than letting down our guard or becoming self-complacent, the fact that the other half still needs to be rebuilt means that we will redouble our efforts. We hope that during 2011, with the support and contribution of everyone in Chile, we will be able to rebuild almost all of that other half," he added.

The President used the opportunity to call for unity in commemorating the anniversary of the tragedy of February 27, saying, "I hope that all Chilean men and women, but most particularly those who have the honor of representing the people, will join together as one in remembering and commemorating those who died. I also hope that we will be more united than ever so that we can build a better Chile for all."

The President also took part in the ribbon-cutting ceremony to open the new National Early Warning Center. This has been equipped based recommendations from different international sources and includes various communication systems to ensure the reporting and transmission of emergency information (including HF and VHF systems, telephony and satellite Internet access in both the national and regional centers).


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Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU

 CEL: 93934521
Santiago- Chile
Soliciten nuestros cursos de capacitación  y consultoría en GERENCIA ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA -LIDERAZGO -  GESTION DEL CONOCIMIENTO - RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL – LOBBY – COACHING EMPRESARIAL-ENERGIAS RENOVABLES   ,  asesorías a nivel nacional e  internacional y están disponibles  para OTEC Y OTIC en Chile

Friday, February 18, 2011

Climate change

Climate change

Piecemeal possibilities

Paying attention to alternative ways of cooling the planet is a good idea; ignoring carbon emissions isn't

Feb 17th 2011 | From The Economist print edition

THE planet-wide industrial exhalation of previously fossilised carbon is not the only way that humans are changing the Earth's climate. There are other greenhouse gases, other atmospheric pollutants, the effects of cutting down forests, and more: together these things may contribute almost as much as carbon emissions to global warming. In the face of an international inability to put the sort of price on carbon use that would drive its emission down, an increasing number of policy wonks, and the politicians they advise, are taking a more serious look at these other factors as possible ways of controlling climate change.

Three things make these alternative approaches attractive by comparison. The first is that the emission of carbon dioxide is a fundamental part of today's industrial infrastructure. The same is not true for, say, HFC-134a, a gas with various industrial uses that delivers more than 1,000 times more warming than carbon dioxide, mass for mass. Something peripheral for which alternatives can be readily found is easier and cheaper to do without than something at the heart of industrial life.

Second, the benefits of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions can seem abstract and far-off. In contrast, reducing emissions of the sooty particles known as black carbon, which are given off by inefficient combustion in cooking fires and brick kilns, and by dodgy diesel engines, offers rapid, huge and tangible public-health benefits (see article). Controlling black carbon by giving poor people cleaner ways to burn various fuels could not only forestall a decade or two of global warming, it would also save hundreds of thousands of lives currently blighted by smoke and disease.

Third, equitable and efficient ways of reducing carbon emissions require new international agreements and new instruments of national policy. Putting these together has often proved difficult to the point of impossible: witness the UN climate talks. Sometimes the efforts have simply failed, as in America's cap-and-trade legislation. Acting on other warming agents will frequently be a more straightforward matter of adapting existing tools. For instance, HFC-134a and a whole family of related chemicals could be dealt with by extending the Montreal protocol created to protect the ozone layer from similar industrial gases. Similarly, black carbon can in many places be managed under existing clean-air regulations, as can some other climate-changing pollutants. True, the Obama administration is trying to tackle carbon dioxide in a similar way, by having the Environmental Protection Agency regulate emissions. But this, too, may fail, and even its proponents do not see it as a very attractive way forward.

Let the good be the friend of the better

As well as having charms that efforts to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions lack, these alternatives could also improve the content and prospects of other climate action. They allow people to meet in smaller venues than the vast UN shindigs. Imagine that success on some of these currently marginal climate issues came fairly quickly and easily. That could help build the trust, ambition and momentum needed to get further on deals to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions, and to find ways to finance the new energy infrastructures those reductions require, both through the UN process and by other means.

But these new types of climate action do not replace the need to reduce carbon emissions. Carbon-dioxide levels are still rising; the shadow of uncertainty and risk they cast into the future is getting deeper and longer. Carbon emitted today will continue to warm the planet for millennia, unless active measures to remove it from the atmosphere are undertaken at some later date. Reducing other short-lived sources of climate change while continuing to emit carbon will delay rises in temperature, but it will not stop them. Broadening climate action can supplement existing efforts on carbon and provide new suppleness to climate politics—both good things. But this does not change the imperative of decarbonisation.


Fuente:The Economist
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Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU

 CEL: 93934521
Santiago- Chile
Soliciten nuestros cursos de capacitación  y consultoría en GERENCIA ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA -LIDERAZGO -  GESTION DEL CONOCIMIENTO - RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL – LOBBY – COACHING EMPRESARIAL-ENERGIAS RENOVABLES   ,  asesorías a nivel nacional e  internacional y están disponibles  para OTEC Y OTIC en Chile

Thursday, February 17, 2011

MUJER CHILE: Former president of Chile to teach at Berkeley

Former president of Chile to teach at Berkeley

The former president of Chile will teach a number of seminars this year at UC Berkeley.

Michelle Bachelet, who is currently serving as the United Nations' undersecretary general for women's rights, will talk about the challenges she faced as the president of Chile and the issues she will address in her new position at the United Nations.

Her first seminar will be on Friday and it will be open both undergraduates and graduate students, according to UC Berkeley News.

"Michelle Bachelet is an exceptional political leader and a remarkable person," said Harley Shaiken, a UC Berkeley professor and chair of the Center for Latin American Studies.  "She reflects the values of UC Berkeley, and we are honored to have her as part of this community."

Bachelet is a pediatrician and epidemiologist. Her father was a general who died after Gen. Augusto Pinochet's 1973 coup. She was appointed in 2000 to the position of minister of health and later became the minister of defense. She was elected president of Chile in 2006.

Bachelet left the presidency in 2010. She is now spearheading a drive to raise $500 million for UN Women, created by the United Nations General Assembly in 2010 by pulling together four existing U.N. groups dealing with women's advancement.

The agency will focus on promoting the leadership of women in political and economic decision-making, ending violence against women, and creating a broader role for women in peacekeeping efforts,

Bachelet was president when an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck Chile. More than 500 people died in the quake and its aftermath, including some who were struck by a tsunami after the quake. Bachelet is being sued for authorizing the government to lift the tsunami warning.

Read more about Bachelet's class here.


Fuente:http://www.berkeleyside.com/2011/02/17/former-president-of-chile-to-teach-at-berkeley/
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Rodrigo González Fernández
Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU

 CEL: 93934521
Santiago- Chile
Soliciten nuestros cursos de capacitación  y consultoría en GERENCIA ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA -LIDERAZGO -  GESTION DEL CONOCIMIENTO - RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL – LOBBY – COACHING EMPRESARIAL-ENERGIAS RENOVABLES   ,  asesorías a nivel nacional e  internacional y están disponibles  para OTEC Y OTIC en Chile

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

← Time to LeadMake room for mentoring!

Make room for mentoring!

Although National Mentoring Month has passed, conversation about the role of mentors is still very much top of mind this February.  Not only did Allison Jones and Rosetta Thurman host an online chat (hashtag: #ynpnchat) about how young nonprofit professionals can successfully acquire mentors, but the Harvard Business Review Best Practices blog discussed "Demystifying Mentoring", an article which outlines some common misperceptions associated with mentoring and offers some solid advice to those seeking some form of mentorship.

Within the discussion at the #ynpnchat with Rosetta and Allison, folks talked about how mentors are those people who always look out for your best interest, who serve as a sounding board when needed, and who invest in you and your future.  Chat participants reported having multiple mentors, with each relationship having its own structure and format.  Nonetheless, there was a clear recognition that maintaining mentoring relationships required some effort; however, it was clear the group felt the benefits of mentoring were well worth this effort.

This conversation dovetailed nicely with the "Demystifying Mentoring" article, which lifted up these four big myths of mentoring:

  1. "You have to find one perfect mentor" – People have different strengths and abilities, and so it makes sense that you would rely upon a multitude of people when seeking guidance and advice.  Get out of the habit of thinking of your mentor as one individual, and begin to develop relationships with a variety of individuals who will be equipped to meet all of your different needs over time.
  2. "Mentoring is a formal long-term relationship" – There is no minimum time commitment over a period of months years that qualifies a person as your mentor.  Rather, you can define your relationship in a way that works best for you.
  3. "Mentoring is for junior people" – Regardless of where you are in your career, you can benefit from having a mentor.  I would actually take this a step further, and note that mentoring does not necessarily necessitate an older person providing guidance to a younger or less-experienced person.  I believe mentoring can occur among peers, as well as from younger to older.  After all, we all bring our own unique perspectives to the table, and each has a special value!
  4. "Mentoring is something experienced people do out of the goodness of their hearts" – Mentoring needs to have direct benefits for both parties.  As a mentee, you need to make sure that you are fulfilling your end of the bargain, whatever that may be.

So in light of both of these discussions, here are my suggestions to you:

  • You should "Mr. Potato Head" your mentor.  You're not likely to find one person who is the perfect mentor for every situation, so solicit guidance from a collective of individuals.
  • Not unlike dating, some mentoring relationships will last a long time and some will fade out quickly.  So long as it has some tangible benefits for both the mentor and the mentee, the relationship will likely continue to grow.  When that is lost, it is time to let the relationship go.
  • Mentoring is not just reserved for those times when you are facing a challenging situation, or have to make a difficult career decision.  Great mentors can help you continuously grow and learn, and help to ensure you don't reach a point where you feel "stuck" in your work and life.  It is important to always reserve the time and create the space necessary for mentoring relationships.
  •  

    Given your own experiences with mentoring, what would you add?


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    Rodrigo González Fernández
    Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
    Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU

     CEL: 93934521
    Santiago- Chile
    Soliciten nuestros cursos de capacitación  y consultoría en GERENCIA ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA -LIDERAZGO -  GESTION DEL CONOCIMIENTO - RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL – LOBBY – COACHING EMPRESARIAL-ENERGIAS RENOVABLES   ,  asesorías a nivel nacional e  internacional y están disponibles  para OTEC Y OTIC en Chile

    Monday, February 07, 2011

    Franchising My Business - Why It Works

    Franchising My Business - Why It Works

    People suffer from various queries like how to franchise my business? Whether franchising my business would be beneficial for my business? Is it the right time to franchise my business? And so on. You keep on searching for a perfect person who can answer all your questions. The best solution for this is to consult with franchise consultants. Franchise consultants are the persons who have complete information about franchising your business with all the latest updates required in it. They first analyze your business so that you can know whether your business must be franchised or not. If not then what are the requirement that must be fulfilled to make it more perfect.

    With franchise consultants you can analyze the overall benefits of franchising your business. Now you must be thinking about that what are the actual reasons behind the successful carrier in franchising my business.
    So there are many. People go for franchising their business as they can see that when they take one step in the market they find number of business franchises which are successful. Here are certain reasons which I found that why franchise business actually works.

    -Well-known Services or Products: In the franchise business, a franchiser offers such services or products which are successfully developed, tested, refined and sold.

    -Promotional Backing: For effective marketing proper planning holds a great importance. With franchising you can develop effective plans for a local market. The franchisers also have experience and various resources with which they can develop local and nationwide marketing programs. This is very beneficial for all the franchise owners.

    -Guidance for Start-Up: The franchiser who has experience and complete knowledge provides proper assistance to new franchise owners for their perfect start-up.

    -Guidance for Management: The franchisers provide great guidance in managing and operating the new business successfully.

    -Brand Name: With the help of established franchisers, the brand name is recognized regionally as well as nationwide.

    -Financial Guidance: Franchisers play vital role in providing guidance about financing to the new franchise.
    It is quite easier for them because of their experience to find the perfect financial help among all.



    Read more: http://business.ezinemark.com/franchising-my-business-why-it-works-31f4f6c3bc9.html#ixzz1DJbjYsS6
    Under Creative Commons License: Attribution No Derivatives
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    Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
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    Santiago- Chile
    Soliciten nuestros cursos de capacitación  y consultoría en GERENCIA ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA -LIDERAZGO -  GESTION DEL CONOCIMIENTO - RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL – LOBBY – COACHING EMPRESARIAL-ENERGIAS RENOVABLES   ,  asesorías a nivel nacional e  internacional y están disponibles  para OTEC Y OTIC en Chile

    Thursday, February 03, 2011

    EGIPTO ..An end or a beginning?

    An end or a beginning?

    As Hosni Mubarak fights back, where Egypt's revolt will go, and how far it will spread, are still unanswered questions

    The upheaval in Egypt

    Citizens find a voice

    IT IS the greatest drama to shake Egypt since the killing of Anwar Sadat in 1981. Huge nationwide protests have challenged the long rule of President Hosni Mubarak, threatening to dislodge him. As yet, the denouement remains unwritten. Will it match Tunisia, where a popular uprising sent another strongman president into exile, toppled his ruling party and opened the way to real democracy? Or will it look like Iran in 2009, where a hardline regime crushed a popular protest movement with iron-fisted resolve?

    The protests have left hundreds dead, frozen Egypt's economy, forced a cabinet to resign, brought the army onto the streets and prompted Mr Mubarak to promise reforms. Egypt's tough 82-year-old president, in charge for the past three decades, now says he will go—but only at the end of his term in September, with dignity and with a subtle threat that if he does not get his way, things could turn uglier still. While offering a bare minimum of concessions, he has driven a wedge between millions of protesters who demand change and millions of others who fear chaos and want a return to normal. By February 2nd the two sides were battling each other.

    Mr Mubarak has been slow to respond throughout the crisis, but his few appearances have been cleverly pitched. When he finally spoke, after midnight on January 28th, a day when hundreds of thousands across the breadth of Egypt had battled furiously with his police, it was with a husky voice and the petulance of a master betrayed by bungling servants. He said he understood his people's concerns, and as a concession fired his cabinet. But he blamed the unrest on miscreants and agitators, declaring that protests had grown so loud only because he himself had magnanimously granted rights to free expression.

    There was something in this. During his rule Egyptians have changed, as has the world they live in. They do speak more freely now, but not only because Mr Mubarak's regime has belatedly allowed the airing of more critical views. New technologies have also made it impossible for states such as Egypt's to retain the information monopolies they once enjoyed.

    Mr Mubarak was right in a wider sense, too. It has been on his watch, and in part because of his policies, that Egyptian society has ripened for a sudden outburst that now threatens to blow away his regime. This is true not only because he failed to improve the lot of Egypt's poorest very much, because he throttled meaningful political evolution, or because he let his police humiliate victims with impunity. Some of Mr Mubarak's modest achievements, such as improving literacy, keeping peace with neighbours, extending communications networks and fostering the emergence of a large urban middle class, have also sharpened tensions.

    This is one reason why the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia echoes resoundingly across the region. Most of the other countries there, whether monarchies or republics, also have structures that seem increasingly anomalous in the modern world. Since the 1950s the Arab social order has been run by paternalist strongmen, bolstered by strong security forces and loyalist business grandees. Those below have been marginalised from politics, except as masses to be roused for some cause, or as a rabble with which to frighten a narrow and fragile bourgeoisie. They have been treated as subjects, rather than citizens.

    But much as in southern Europe in the 1970s, when authoritarian regimes in Portugal, Spain and Greece fell in a heap, or later in Latin America, where juntas collapsed like dominoes, Arab societies are changing in ways likely to provoke a sweeping political reordering. Because of the extreme violence of a radical fringe, much of the outside world's concern for the region has focused on the rise of Islamism as a social and political force.

    The role of groups such as Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is important. But it is underlying social changes that affect all, rather than the ideological aspirations of some, that are jamming the mechanics of authoritarian control. Islamists in both Tunisia and Egypt may soon emerge as leading political actors. So far, however, they have taken a back seat.

    The bellwether country

    Egypt is bigger and poorer than most other Arab states, and not necessarily a model. But it is a more of a bellwether than Tunisia was. It was Egypt's 1952 revolution, ushering in the military-backed authoritarianism of Gamal Abdel Nasser that Mr Mubarak inherited, which inspired similar regimes to emerge, from Algeria to Iraq to Yemen. The direction Egypt chooses now could have a similar influence.

    Egyptians of all classes and persuasions have joined today's protests. But in their vanguard, except perhaps in the thickest combat, have been thousands of urban professionals, or university students who hope to be professionals one day. Such people have typically shunned politics, seeing Egypt's stage-managed version as a waste of time. In private they have often complained that they do not feel they own their country, as if it is someone else's private estate.

    In the past—for example, in the riots that erupted in 1977 when Sadat's government doubled the price of subsidised bread—it was the poor who forced simple demands on Egypt's government. To prevent another climbdown, Mr Mubarak's regime built its riot squad into a daunting force of perhaps 150,000 well-trained and well-equipped men. It also kept the economy burdened with subsidies, with bread, cooking fuel and public transport priced at fractions of their real cost.

    Some 40% of Egyptians still live on less than $2 a day. In recent years, even as Egypt's overall economy has grown apace and more consumer goods have filled even lower-income households, the poor have won little relief from relentlessly rising food prices and sharper competition for secure jobs. Such anxieties have found expression in a growing number of strikes and local protests across the country. Yet in a sense, persistent poverty has helped prop up the regime. "People survive on a day-to-day basis," says a young Cairo lawyer. "They can't go for long without a daily wage and daily bread, so they can't afford to make trouble."

    Economic strains have squeezed better-off Egyptians, too, but other factors raised their anger with Mr Mubarak's government to boiling point. Even to a people inured to politics as a farcical pageant, the blatant fakery of parliamentary elections held in November and December, which virtually shut out any opposition players, seemed a lurid insult, added to the injury of Mr Mubarak's apparent plan to foist upon them his son Gamal as their next ruler. Equally lurid are the tales of corruption involving not just rich businessmen but also institutions of Mr Mubarak's state. Dismay over police cruelty has also risen, especially after an incident in June when plainclothes agents in Alexandria beat to death a young internet aficionado, Khaled Said, spawning a Facebook campaign that prompted silent vigils across the country.

    That such overlapping concerns seemed unlikely ever to coalesce into political action testifies to the effectiveness of Egypt's police state. This relies less on repression than on co-opting, dividing and, perhaps most important, demoralising potential challengers. Its other prop has been a political shell-game, whereby Mr Mubarak and his inner circle simply blame any shortcomings on his ministers, and explain repression as a needed defence against menacing Islamists. Despite rising calls for change, bitter quarrels—between Islamists and secularists, conservatives and leftists—have dissipated the energies of Egypt's opposition.

    Two new factors seem to have tipped the balance. One was the emergence of loosely related groups pressing for reform, run via the internet by youths of generally secular outlook but no particular ideology. Some coalesced around labour rights. Some promoted human rights or academic freedom. Others were inspired by the appearance on the scene of Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel prize-winning former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog. For such a respected figure to demand an end to dictatorship seemed a breath of fresh air to educated Egyptians. Some of these groups studied other people-power movements, such as Serbia's, and began quietly organising for a similar campaign.

    The second factor was Tunisia. It was not only the speed and success of its revolt that convinced many Egyptians that their regime might prove equally flimsy. The most obvious outcome of Tunisia's unrest was the exit of its president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, after 23 years of rule. His flight to exile in Saudi Arabia concentrated Egypt's dissident minds on the one thing they could all agree on: the demand that Mr Mubarak should go.

    Revolution's trigger

    The Facebook page for solidarity with Mr Said, the victim of police brutality, was what drew the widest audience for the idea of a "day of rage" to be held on January 25th. Yet few among the page's 375,000 followers anticipated the impact this would have. The peaceful crowds that turned out that day were not huge: they numbered in the tens of thousands only in Cairo and Alexandria. By the end of the day, police recaptured Tahrir (Liberation) Square, the symbolic heart of Cairo, in a brutal charge.

    But the eruption of protests in nearly all Egypt's main cities at once had proved a stunning shock. As in Tunisia, the regime appeared paralysed at first. It responded solely through security measures, such as cutting off mobile telephones, text-messaging services and the internet. By the time Mr Mubarak decided to speak, three days later, it seemed too late to turn the tide.

    Demonstrations on Friday January 28th prompted him at last to break his silence. Protesters were numbered not in tens but in hundreds of thousands, including people from all walks of Egyptian life. In Cairo itself pitched battles between protesters and riot police raged in more than a dozen places, leaving scores dead and thousands wounded. Flames roared through the halls of Mr Mubarak's National Democratic Party in Tahrir Square, where youths danced amid the lingering fumes of tear-gas around the smouldering wrecks of overturned police vehicles. When night fell it was not only the riot police who retreated, beaten and exhausted. The entire uniformed manpower of Egypt's mammoth Ministry of Interior, amounting to perhaps a million policemen, vanished from the country's streets.

    Exactly as in Tunisia, their suspiciously complete exit sparked a wave of looting, vandalism and banditry. Rioters breached the walls of several of Egypt's main prisons, freeing more than 20,000 convicts, including several hundred on death row. In the strategic north-east corner of Sinai, along the border with Gaza, local Bedouin blew up police stations and grabbed their arsenals. Reports from Alexandria claimed that some 20,000 police guns had gone missing. The city of Suez, where the toll of casualties was particularly high, fell entirely into the hands of protesters.

    The evacuation of police also fanned rumours, backed by reports of security agents engaging in arson and thievery, that the chaos was planned. If so, it had its effect. Despite the hasty organisation of citizen militias, reports of roving bands of thugs terrified many, especially in poorer districts. This kept people at home, away from the demonstrations. As bread became scarce in the shops and salaries went unpaid, many also began blaming the protesters for provoking chaos.

    The regime hangs on

    With his police in disgrace, Mr Mubarak sent in his army and decreed what only weeks before would have been seen as a radical change. He appointed as vice-president his dour, dapper 74-year-old intelligence chief, General Omar Suleiman. Since Mr Mubarak had never anointed a deputy, this was widely seen as a first step to his own graceful retirement. He also picked a new prime minister, a former air-force commander, Ahmed Shafik.

    The army's intervention has been broadly greeted with relief, particularly since its command declared it would not use force. But Mr Mubarak's other moves did not assuage protesters, now joined by the enraged families of those injured by police in previous clashes, as well as by the full might of previously hesitant Islamist groups, led by the Muslim Brotherhood.

    The cabinet soon sworn in by Mr Shafik retained half the ministers of the previous government, a sign, perhaps, of the difficulty of manning what many perceived as a sinking ship and a signal, to some, that Mr Mubarak was up to his old trick of blaming failings on subordinates, in this case the outgoing ministers. The new vice-president failed to impress with a brief statement, his only public appearance so far. Mr Suleiman said he was open to talks with opposition forces, and would respect court verdicts over challenges to December's election results. This could prove a big concession, since many jurists say the whole vote was fraudulent.

    Not surprisingly, protests mounted to a new pitch. Despite the continued suspension of the internet and text-messaging, and the blockage of rail and road links into Cairo, a crowd of nearly half a million crammed into Cairo's centre on February 1st, overspilling Tahrir Square onto adjacent streets and bridges. As many as 100,000 also marched in Alexandria.

    Citizens find a voice

    Knocked back, Mr Mubarak replied with the skill of a seasoned general. In a masterful speech that night, he declared that he had never intended to run for a sixth term this September, without explaining why he had never revealed this before. He also said he would revise articles in the constitution, inserted by himself, that narrowly restricted the field of presidential challengers. He restated his willingness to negotiate with the opposition, and reasserted his paternal concern for the people. "I am a military man and it is not my nature to abandon my duties," he said gravely. "I have defended the soil of Egypt and will die on it, and be judged by history."

    To protesters camped in Tahrir Square, who had spent days screaming for his departure, this was again far too little, too late. But many other Egyptians, particularly the elderly and the poor, saw it as a dignified way out of the impasse. Amid a backlash of pro-Mubarak sentiment the next day, foreign newsmen were attacked by Egyptians accusing them of plotting to undermine stability. In Alexandria and Cairo large pro-Mubarak mobs of youths, some reportedly fortified by plainclothes thugs and paid criminal stooges, tried to storm the protesters' camps, leading to mêlées in which dozens were injured.

    Such dirty tactics, accompanied by calls from the army, which has remained scrupulously neutral, for the protests to end, suggest that Mr Mubarak's regime believes it can complete what appears to be a well-devised script. Middle-class protesters will be frightened back to their homes, and most ordinary Egyptians relieved to see the unrest end. The president's opponents will be able to declare that they have won key reforms. But the regime will remain in charge, controlling the pace of change.

    Whether this will succeed in restoring stability remains to be seen. Egypt has now become starkly polarised. The fury against Mr Mubarak felt by many has only increased. Despite numbers thinned by the defection of those fearful of getting hurt, the anti-Mubarak protesters may still be able to mount mass protests, perhaps after Friday prayers. The Muslim Brotherhood has declared that it will not negotiate with the government until Mr Mubarak steps down. Mr ElBaradei has described pro-Mubarak demonstrations as criminal acts by a criminal regime.

    From pharaohism to democracy

    As Egypt's powerful state regroups its forces and continues to capitalise on fears of insecurity, Mr Mubarak's men may have their way. Still, even within his army, which has so far remained loyal to the president, many may believe that only Mr Mubarak's departure can calm Egypt's streets. The president could possibly announce an early retirement on health grounds. But if there is one quality Mr Mubarak has shown during his three decades of rule, it is stubbornness.

    Whatever the outcome, it is already clear that Egyptian society as a whole has evolved. Despite the ugly clashes of recent days, the change has mostly been peaceful. Egyptians have graphically demonstrated that they will no longer accept the old rules. They are moving, in the words of Fahmi Huweidi, a popular columnist sympathetic to the Muslim Brothers, from pharaohism to democracy.

    Even if protests fizzle for the time being, a certain pride of reclaiming possession was vividly in evidence. Protesters in the notoriously trash-strewn megalopolis of Cairo swept and tidied the squares they occupied, and ordinary Egyptians cheerfully and quite efficiently directed traffic or joined neighbourhood patrols in the absence of police.

    In the posh district of Zamalek, one volunteer manning a citizens' roadblock at night gleefully displayed a photo he had taken with his mobile phone, showing his patrol demanding to see the driving licence of a police officer whose car they had stopped. In such ways, Egyptians have begun to establish themselves as citizens of their own country.


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    Rodrigo González Fernández
    Diplomado en "Responsabilidad Social Empresarial" de la ONU
    Diplomado en "Gestión del Conocimiento" de la ONU

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